I am going to muse over Statistics (the field not numbers) in my daily life in a demystified manner, without any formular. I am musing over numbers: how they are collected, collated, and made sense of to guide us in our lives. All this done intuitively most of the time.
My musing is informed by work done under WHO’s mantle published as Introduction in: Teaching Health Statistics: A guide for lesson and seminar outlines. But as I muse over the subject, my mind can’t stop wandering to other writings and publications I have made in my working years. I am going to restrict myself to the basics without straying into the background mathematics. My reflections are common sense but, in my opinion, worth sharing.
As a statistician I believe in evidenced information as opposed to hearsay. I also expect people entrusted to take care of my health to base their decisions, and the guidance they give me, on solid evidence rather than by sticking their finger up to feel which way the wind is blowing as a guide on the action to take.
We talk of “statistics is” or “statistics are” depending on whether we are referring to “the” science or to “the” numbers.
As a discipline or a science of managing uncertainties in decision processes, it covers the scientific methods of collecting, processing, reducing, presenting, analysing and interpreting data and of making inferences and drawing conclusions from numerical data.
Statistics as a science, includes measures such as average, central value, and spread of the observations used to describe the data (the plural statistics). These measures have scientific names we do not have to bother with here.
Statistics as data (the plural statistics) refers to the type such as: the quantitative (numerical) numbers, and qualitative (categorical e.g. large/small, heavy/light; warm/hot/scalding etc.) or discrete (can only be whole numbers e.g. number of residents in a homestead, number of bacteria in millilitre of fluid etc.) and continuous (can take on any number such as 0.3574 or 45.92518 etc. e.g. length between two points in centimetres; or the time it takes to move from one point to another in any time units such as seconds, minutes or hours).
Some of you may have heard, or even used, the phrase “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” describing the persuasive power of statistics to strengthen weak arguments or how statistics can be manipulated to support any argument. It belittles statistics, implying that there are three types of lies: innocuous lies, damned lies and statistics. As a statistician I do not take this lying down. Statistics is a tool for unravelling information presented by data. Like all tools, it can be misused intentionally or through ignorance. That does not make the tool inappropriate.
Evidence-based decisions are made using the best available information from analysed data and with expert interpretation. Respected decisions are informed by objective, reliable, and current information rather than intuition, tradition, or unverified assumptions. Statistics is the tool to achieve these objectives. Key elements of evidence-based decision-making include:
• Collecting data and information from credible sources
• Evaluating the quality, relevance, and applicability of the evidence to the specific situation.
• Ability to interpret and apply the evidence appropriately.
One does not have to be a statistician to use statistics. We are making decisions daily, intuitively or intentionally, based on the evidence from the observations we make, the majority of which have underlying numerical values. For example, deciding when to leave home for the office in the morning. The decision is intuitively based on the distance, the level of traffic congestion, the type of transportation to be used etc. determining how long it would take for the journey.
In Uganda, especially in the capital city, Kampala, people lament the level of traffic congestion referring to it as “jam”. Statements such as “Jam is terrible today because some roads are closed for security reasons” or “The jam on 7th street is mainly due to the potholes in that road”. The word “jam” in this context is loaded with numbers of vehicles and motorcycles (quantitative data) in a (categorical) stationary situation subconsciously analysed and compared with other roads.
Did I have to spend two years studying statistics at university to be able to contribute to this traffic situation conversation? The answer is “No”, but on deeper reflection my understanding of the scientific composition of the numbers involved in the discussion, I am in a better position to sit through the traffic without screaming my head off and raising my blood pressure. I know that the laws of traffic flow will eventually provide me with a window of opportunity to move and continue with the journey. My mind intuitively employs queueing theory applying it to the traffic status, its formation and movement at intersections and bottlenecks.
Monitoring requires evidenced information, ideally quantitative, through counts or measurements. We are forever monitoring our space, intuitively comparing the current situation to previous situations and making decisions for the next steps. We are invoking statistics both in singular and plural i.e. the science and numbers. For example, in my Rotary club we are regularly informally monitoring the impact of our community projects by asking the people whether there are any changes in their lives, environment etc. since project implementation. Responses such as “We spend less time fetching water” or “Diarrhoea and typhoid have decreased” or “Most of the trees we planted died during the dry season” are loaded with intuitive numerical data that help us judge how the projects are performing.
As a statistician, I believe that exposure to statistics helps in developing a critical mental faculty, to be able to:
• think scientifically, logically and critically about life’s problems
• properly assess the available evidence for decision making
• be aware of possible risks associated with life’s decisions
• identify decisions and conclusions that lack a scientific and logical basis.
Statisticians are frequently regarded as cantankerous because we are forever asking for the evidence, or challenging the data advanced as evidence, in an argument however trivial the argument may be.
I have spent all my formal working life in the health sector, although I am not medical. As my mind focuses on statistics in the health sector, I can’t help pointing out how statistical methods are consciously or subconsciously applied in health care delivery at the community and individual patient care levels. At the community level, they are used to monitor and assess the health situation and trends in a community, to predict the likely outcome of an intervention programme, or to measure the benefits of the invested resources. At the patient level, they are used to arrive at the most likely diagnosis, to predict the prognostic course of the disease and to evaluate the relative efficacy of various modes of treatment. I frequently have blood tests done especially for my annual medical examination. As I go through the results with my doctor, we are provided evidence of what is happening in my body and the status of my vital organs. They form the basis of the decisions we make on the best actions to follow.
At a different level, statistical principles are essential for planning, conducting and interpreting biomedical, clinical and community health data. For people who keep up with improving their knowledge, statistics is essential for critical understanding of the scientific literature.
As a statistician musing over statistics, a profession into which I spent nearly 50 productive years, I cannot help being positively biased towards the usefulness and importance of the profession. Yet over those years I have noticed how it can be misused leading to near disastrous results. On a social note, do not allow your life to be hooked onto stereotype statistics of beauty, wealth and social status. Look beyond the statistics for the inner meanings. This reminds me of the comment I made when musing over the rose. The inner meaning of these social statistics is like the aroma of a rose. When that aroma is missing what kind of a rose is that. Think about it.
Thank you for being part of the Fork in the Road Blogs: Reflections on Life. Be sure to look out for the next episode when I will be writing about Reciprocation. If you gathered something useful, please feel free to share the blog. My books, Fork in the Road: Creating a future of value starting from where you are and A view round the bend. Setting goals for your life’s journey are available for purchase at Aristoc bookshops in Kampala, Uganda and online at Amazon.
Your comments on my musings are most welcome and let me know whether there is a topic you would like me to muse over.
Comments (4)
Omaswa Francis
Very interesting. Statistics should be part of the new Competency based curriculum in schools.
Rtn Stephen
I agree, Francis, and it would not vary much from the rest of the subjects taught if it is taught as a tool to understanding of the rest.
Rrn Immie Bukko
Interesting read………. Really broke down statistics in a relatable manner.
Rtn Stephen
Thank you Rtn Immie for visiting my website and the comment. Read or listen to the other postings